Four Errors in Reasoning
about Autism

On this page, the one word "autism" takes the place of the more complex "autism spectrum disorder" and its short form "ASD."

1. REASONING IN A CIRCLE
(which is the same as
BEGGING THE QUESTION)

Here are two of today's statements about autism that seem to be true:

• Boys and girls become autistic because their mothers and fathers gave them bad genes.
• A mother and father are harboring bad genes because one or more of their offspring became autistic.

This is reasoning in a circle. The second statement is used to make the first statement true. Then the first statement is used to make the second statement true.

But if the two earlier statements are true, then these statements have to be true as well:

• Boys and girls become autistic because a Martian put moon dust in the ears of their mothers and fathers.
• A mother and father have had a Martian put moon dust in their ears because one or more of their offspring became autistic.

My comparison of statements about autism is named reductio ad absurdum.

2. AFFIRMATION OF THE CONSEQUENT

Here is an example of this error in reasoning:

• If it is raining, then the ground is wet.
• The ground is wet.
• Therefore, it is raining.

No! The ground may be wet for a number of reasons:

• It was raining but has stopped.
• This is a swamp and the ground is always wet.
• The ground has been irrigated.
• Fog comes off the ocean and wets the ground.
• It is raining.

With autism the argument goes this way:

• If you are poisoned by mercury, then you will have a certain group of signs.
• Persons with autism have the very same group of signs.
• Therefore, mercury poisoning is the cause of autism in these persons.

No! A person's autism may have a relation to a number of events:

• Prenatal infection with rubella (German measles).
• Prenatal exposure to thalidomide.
• Tuberous sclerosis.
• Fragile-X syndrome.
• High intelligence.
• Unkown forces.
• Mercury poisoning.

Here is a connection to an Internet page that has a long list of the parallels between the signs of mercury poisoning and the signs of autism. Make use of this connection to see Autism: A Unique Type of Mercury Poisoning. The page's argument seems strong but its reasoning is in error.

Take note that if we make use of this page's reasoning even though it is in error, then we get an interesting idea about autism:

• If you have autism, then you will have a certain group of signs.
• Persons with mercury poisoning have the very same group of signs.
• Therefore, autism is the cause of mercury poisoning in you.

And why not? An autistic person's "bad genes" are certainly in place before he or she is ever poisoned by mercury. So those "bad genes" are the cause of his or her autism which is then the cause of his or her mercury poisoning. Give the idea some thought.

3. AFTER THIS, THEREFORE BECAUSE OF THIS or, in Latin,
Post hoc, ergo propter hoc.

Here is an example of this error in reasoning:

Tom: Dick, every 5 minutes or so, you give one of your ears a pull. Why do you do that?

Dick: Pulling on one of my ears keeps wild elephants away so that we will be safe from them.

Tom: But there has never been a wild elephant within 7,000 miles of here.

Dick: See how well my ear-pulling works!

With autism the argument goes this way:

• My boy or girl had all the signs of autism.
• I put my boy or girl on a GFCF (gluten-free, casein-free) diet and he or she got better.
• Therefore, gluten and casein made my boy or girl autistic.

Or with autism the argument may go this way:

• My boy or girl had no signs of autism.
• My boy or girl got signs of autism shortly after vaccination.
• Therefore, vaccination made my boy or girl autistic.

No! Gluten, casein and vaccination frequently make autism worse. (That is, they may exacerbate autism.) But that's still a long way from their causing autism.

To overcome this error in our reasoning, we have to make clear the difference between a true cause of autism and a possible cause of autism. A possible cause of autism is something

• that makes it simpler for a person to get autism (it's a predisposition to autism)
• OR that makes a person's autism worse (it's an exacerbation of autism)
• BUT that is, so far, not a true cause of a person's autism.

A good number of possible causes get their start from an error in reasoning named "After This, Therefore Because of This." The Latin words for this error in reasoning are, "Post hoc, ergo propter hoc." A possible cause of autism may become a true cause of autism after we have put in much thought, time and work to make it so. But, . . .

So far, we have NO TRUE CAUSES of autism.

Why Possible Causes Are Important

Possible causes of autism are very important; for now, they are more important than true causes of autism. Why more important? Because, until we come up with a true cause of autism, we still have to do two things: (1) put a stop to autism before it takes place (prevention) or (2) make autism better if it has taken place (treatment).

Here are examples of possible and true causes of another disease, poliomyelitis. When I was a young boy, I was living with my family in Chicago. Summers in the city were long and hot but all the public swimming pools were shut down because an epidemic of poliomyelitis was going on every summer. This took place before the discovery of the small virus which was the true cause of poliomyelitis and before the discovery of the true cause (fecal contamination) of how the virus went from person to person. Public health authorities had made the connection between persons who had come down with polio and the persons' use of a public swimming pool a short time before. Swimming pools were shut down because new polio somehow came from their use. This was after-this-therefore-because-of-this reasoning which gave the authorities a possible cause of polio. Acting on this possible cause was necessary because polio had to be stopped, that is, prevented.

Clearly, it is much simpler to keep persons away from a disease, or to make them better when they get it, if we have knowledge of the disease's true cause. But until we get that knowledge, we have to do our best by using possible causes, the only guides we have for preventing and treating the disease.

But using possible causes of autism is tricky, partly because possible causes frequently get their start from an error in reasoning, namely after-this-therefore-because-of-this reasoning.

LET'S BE CLEAR:
So far, my deep-feeling cause of autism is only a possible cause of autism. Much work has to be done before my deep-feeling cause of autism becomes a true cause of autism.

4. TAKING BELIEFS AS FACTS

The fourth error which is more delicate and harder to see than the first three errors. This fourth error comes about when we take certain beliefs as facts. These beliefs come from our religion, society, language, history, schooling and science. Such a great number of persons automatically and unconsciously give their support to these beliefs that the beliefs seem unquestionably true to us. That is, these beliefs seem to be facts. To see a table of our beliefs about autism which are acting as facts, make use of this connection. In the table, our beliefs are named "axioms" but they are beliefs nonetheless.